By Andy Boyle, Times Staff Writer
Tuesday, November 3, 2009

With less than 30 days left in the hurricane season, it looks like Florida may skate again this year. While experts still are watching a weather system in the southwest Caribbean Sea, this season has produced just eight storms and two hurricanes, neither of which made landfall in the United States. Chris Landsea, science and operations officer at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, offers his assessment of the season.

Q. Why such a quiet year?

"I think the main reason is the El Niño that developed in the Pacific Ocean this year. We get an El Niño every four to six years and it has changes to the global weather pattern. Some of them are nice, and some of them aren't so nice. The one beneficial aspect is the reduction in Atlantic hurricanes. You tend to get more windshear that disrupts the storms...We've seen promising looking tropical waves but they would sputter or either not develop or barely develop at all."

Q. How long is this El Niño expected to last?

"It's not very predictable...Most last just a year. The question is whether it will stick around for the 2010 hurricane season. Most El Niños last for a year, but we have seen others span two hurricane seasons. It's usually the ones that start a little late that get very strong. It remains to be seen if this El Niño causes two quiet seasons in a row.

Q. Quiet, of course, can depend on where you live. Do you think our perception of a season focuses too much on hurricanes' impact on the U.S.?